U.S. Economy
Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure
The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) is a semi-annual academic conference and journal that pairs rigorous research with real-time policy analysis to address the most urgent economic challenges of the day. This year, we are adding a special third edition of reports and papers on COVID-19’s current and future impact on the economy. How will labor markets and consumer spending respond in the coming year? What influence should epidemiology have on macroeconomics? Are current safety net programs enough to solve poverty, or merely stem poverty? Are emerging markets in developing economies endangered or emboldened by a global economic crisis? How well have Federal Reserve programs worked throughout this crisis?
On June 25 Brookings held its semi-annual academic conference to discuss new research on COVID-19’s current and future impact on the economy. While BPEA conferences are usually small, invitation-only gatherings, Brookings is opening its proceedings this month to anyone who wishes to observe the vanguard of economic thought around urgent public health and the global economic issues.
Session two: Safety net programs and poverty
Session three: Emerging markets and developing economies
Session four: Labor markets and the economics of non-pharmaceutical interventions
Session five: Macroeconomics and epidemiology
Session Six: Fed programs
Agenda
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June 25
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Session one: Labor markets and consumer spending
10:00 am - 11:00 am
- “The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession”
Authors: Tomaz Cajner, Federal Reserve Board; Leland D. Crane, Federal Reserve Board; Ryan A.
Decker, Federal Reserve Board; John Grigsby, Northwestern University; Adrian Hamins-Puertolas,
Federal Reserve Board; Erik Hurst, University of Chicago; Christopher Kurz, Federal Reserve Board;
and Ahu Yildirmaz, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. - “Initial impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior: Evidence from linked income, spending, and savings data”
Authors: Natalie Cox, Princeton University; Peter Ganong, University of Chicago; Pascal
Noel, University of Chicago; Joseph Vavra, University of Chicago; Arlene Wong, Princeton University;
Diana Farrell, JPMorgan Chase Institute; Fiona Greig, JPMorgan Chase Institute; Erica Deadman, JPMorgan Chase Institute
Discussant
Jonathan A. Parker Professor of Finance - MIT Sloan School of Management - “The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession”
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Session two: Safety net programs and poverty
11:05 am - 12:10 pm
- “Income and poverty in the COVID-19 pandemic”
Authors: Jeehoon Han, University of Chicago; Bruce D. Meyer, University of Chicago; and James X.
Sullivan, University of Notre Dame - “The social safety net in the wake of COVID-19”
Authors: Marianne Bitler, University of California, Davis; Hilary Hoynes, University of California,
Berkeley; and Diane Schanzenbach, Northwestern University
Discussant
Abigail Wozniak Senior Economist and Director, Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis @AbigailWozniak - “Income and poverty in the COVID-19 pandemic”
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Session three: Emerging markets and developing economies
12:15 pm - 1:10 pm
“The effects of the coronavirus pandemic in emerging markets and developing economies: An optimistic preliminary account”
Discussant
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Neil Moskowitz-Endowed Professor of Economics and Director of Center of International Economics - University of Maryland, College Park @skalemliozcan
Michael Kremer Gates Professor of Developing Societies - Department of Economics at Harvard UniversityPaper Author
Tristan Reed Economist - Development Research Group, World Bank -
Session four: Labor markets and the economics of non-pharmaceutical interventions
1:50 pm - 3:10 pm
- “Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis”
Authors: Alexander W. Bartik, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Marianne Bertrand, University
of Chicago; Feng Lin, University of Chicago; Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley; and
Matthew Unrath, University of California, Berkeley - “Mandated and voluntary social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic”
Authors: Sumedha Gupta, Indiana University; Kosali I. Simon, Indiana University; and Coady Wing, Indiana University
Discussant
Caroline Buckee Associate Professor of Epidemiology, T. H. Chan School of Public Health - Harvard University
Victor Chernozhukov Professor of Economics - MIT - “Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis”
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Session five: Macroeconomics and epidemiology
3:20 pm - 4:40 pm
- “COVID-19 is also a reallocation shock”
Authors: Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; Nick Bloom,
Stanford University; and Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago - “Policies for a second wave”
Authors: David Baqaee, University of California, Los Angeles; Emmanuel Farhi, Harvard University;
Michael J. Mina, Harvard University; and James H. Stock, Harvard University
Discussant
Daron Acemoglu Institute Professor - Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology @DAcemogluMIT - “COVID-19 is also a reallocation shock”
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Session Six: Fed programs
4:45 pm - 5:30 pm
Discussant
Ben S. Bernanke Distinguished Senior Fellow - The Brookings Institution, Economic Studies @BenBernankePaper Author
Markus Brunnermeier Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics - Princeton University
Arvind Krishnamurthy John S. Osterweis Professor of Finance - Stanford Graduate School of Business, Senior Fellow - Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
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